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0Global economic uncertainty seems to be the new norm
全球经济不确定性似乎成为新常态
The global economic slowdown trend could continue in 2023, even leading to a mild recession.
2023年全球经济增长可能持续放缓，甚至会出现轻度衰退。
Particularly, the United States is at an increased risk of recession because of a delayed effect of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and other tightening monetary policies, increased downward pressures on demand in its labor market, and an insufficient consumption momentum. The continued impact of the energy crisis, declining external demand, and tighter monetary policies could lead even the European economy to stagnate in 2023.
由于多种因素，美国经济衰退的风险剧尤甚：美联储激进加息等紧缩性货币政策对经济增长产生延迟效应，而美国劳动力市场的需求下行压力增大，消费后劲不足。能源危机的持续影响，外部需求进一步降低以及紧缩货币政策甚至会导致欧洲经济在2023年陷入停滞。
In Asia, Japan's economy will recover slowly, but its aging population will make it difficult for it to grow significantly, while the Fed's monetary policy and global economic downturn will put it under greater pressure. India's economy is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2023, aided by its energy transition, offshore outsourcing, and expanded manufacturing investment. China's economy will recover growth due to its optimized pandemic prevention and control policies, and strengthened driving effects of consumer demand on economic growth, but the downturn of the real estate sector, an aging population, and the lack of external demand will to some extent affect its growth.
亚洲地区，日本经济将缓慢恢复，但人口老龄化导致其经济难以显著增长，美联储货币政策和全球经济衰退也给其造成了更大的压力。在能源转型、离岸外包和制造业投资扩张的政策辅助下，印度经济预计在2023年保持高速增长。在疫情防控政策优化以及消费者需求进一步促进经济增长的影响下，中国经济将恢复增长，但房地产行业的衰退，人口老龄化以及外部需求的缺少将在一定程度上影响其增长。
Global inflation could ease in 2023, but will still remain above the low levels before the global financial crisis. According to the International Monetary Fund, global inflation peaked at 8.8 percent in late 2022 and it is expected to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and 4.1 percent in 2024, still much higher than the 2 percent targeted by central banks.
全球通货膨胀在2023年可能会缓解，但仍将高于全球金融危机前通胀水平。根据国际货币基金组织数据，全球通货膨胀率在2022年末最高达到8.8%，将在2023年下降到6.5%，在2024年下降到4.1%，但是仍比各国中央银行目标通货膨胀率（2%）高得多。
The world's major economies adopted a tightening macroeconomic policy in 2022, which has had a certain impact on global economic recovery. In 2023, some countries may stop such policies fearing a recession. There are still risks of volatility in commodity prices, which are not expected to decline significantly in 2023.
世界主要经济体在2022年采取了紧缩的宏观经济政策，这对全球经济复苏产生了一定影响。为避免经济衰退，一些国家将在2023年停止紧缩政策。商品价格波动的风险仍然存在，预计在2023年将不会显著下降。
Overall, the global economy still faces challenges, because of high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and the adverse effects of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. However, global technological innovation and industrial transformation catalyzed by the digital economy and green economy are enhancing the momentum of global growth, while the continuous development of digital technology and its deep integration with the real economy are accelerating industrial digital transformation.
整体看，在高通胀、货币政策紧缩以及俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突消极影响的综合作用下，全球经济仍面临挑战。然而，在数字经济和绿色经济的催化下，全球经济创新和行业转型正在加强全球增长的势头，数字技术的持续发展及其与实体经济的深度一体化正加速行业数字转型。
Increased international policy coordination and cooperation will also provide a favorable business environment for global enterprises and raise expectations for world economic development.
全球政策协调与合作的加深将为全球企业提供便利的营商环境，并提振大家对世界经济发展的信心。
